Bezpieczny Bank nr 4 (77) 2019, s. 110-126
https://doi.org/10.26354/bb.6.4.77.2019
Leszek Pawłowicz
ORCID 0000-0003-2580-6708
leszek.pawlowicz@gab.com.pl
prof. UG, Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management, University of Gdańsk; Gdansk Institute for Market Economics
Marta Penczar
ORCID 0000-0002-3564-1460
marta.penczar@ug.edu.pl
Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Management, University of Gdańsk; Gdansk Institute for Market Economics
Teresa Bednarczyk
ORCID 0000 0002 9340 6864
bednarte@hektor.umcs.lublin.pl
prof. UMCS, Department of Insurance and Investment at the Institute of Economics and Finance, Faculty of Economics, Maria Curie-Sklodowska University in Lublin
EKF macroeconomic consensus: forecasts, threats, opportunities and recommendations
Abstract
The rapid pace of change in economic phenomena combined with the high volatility of financial markets and the growing importance of irrational behavioral factors, encourages a wider use of expert knowledge in macroeconomic forecasting. The aim of the article is to present the results of the fourth edition of the project Macroeconomic challenges and forecasts for Poland. The survey was conducted in the period November 8, 2019 – December 6, 2019. The article presents the prognostic consensus of experts cooperating with the European Financial Congress. In addition to classic macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, it contains threats to sustainable economic development and financial system stability, together with estimates of the subjective probability of implementation. Using the knowledge and competences of experts cooperating with EKF, recommended actions for economic policy were formulated, aimed at weakening the impact of identified threats in the future.
Key words: macroeconomic forecasts, macroeconomic challenges, financial stability
JEL: G17, G18, E17, E20
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